Commodity Market Wrap-Up (4 July 2025): Gold Rises Above ₹96,900, Silver Surges, Crude Oil Steady, Gas Slips – Key Levels & Trade Ideas
By CapitalKeeper | Pre Market Opening | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Commodity Market Summary – July 4, 2025
As the U.S. markets observed Independence Day, commodity markets remained largely influenced by global cues, weak dollar movement, and speculative positioning. Gold and Silver witnessed a strong rebound, while Crude Oil held its ground, and Natural Gas continued its downward slide amid bearish inventory expectations and milder weather forecasts.
Let’s dive into the detailed commodity analysis, key levels, and actionable intraday strategies.
Gold (MCX) – Safe-Haven Demand Returns
- Closing Price: ₹96,900 / 10g
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹1,548
- International Spot: $2,348/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Gold gained strength as the U.S. Dollar Index slipped below 105, and geopolitical concerns in Eastern Europe triggered mild safe-haven buying. Lower Treasury yields ahead of upcoming inflation data also supported sentiment.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹96,500
- Resistance: ₹97,450
- RSI: 56 (turning bullish)
- MACD: Positive crossover confirmed
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Look for buy-on-dips near ₹96,600–₹96,700 with upside target of ₹97,400–₹97,600. SL at ₹96,400. Short-term trend favors continuation of recovery if ₹97,000 holds.
Silver (MCX) – Outshines Gold with Strong Momentum
- Closing Price: ₹1,08,347 / kg
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹3,430
- International Spot: ~$31.62/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Silver rallied on a mix of safe-haven flows and renewed industrial demand optimism, especially from China’s manufacturing sector, which showed surprise expansion in private PMI data.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹1,06,800
- Resistance: ₹1,09,200
- RSI: 61 (strong momentum)
- MACD: Bullish continuation
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Buy above ₹1,07,800 for targets ₹1,09,000–₹1,09,500. Ideal dip buying around ₹1,07,200–₹1,07,400. SL at ₹1,06,700.
Crude Oil (MCX) – Stays Firm Amid Tight Supply View
- Closing Price: ₹5,697 / barrel
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹65
- International Brent: $85.40/bbl
🌐 Global Cues:
Oil prices held steady as OPEC+ output cuts continued to lend support, though lack of fresh U.S. inventory data due to the holiday capped movement. Traders also priced in a possible recovery in global jet fuel demand.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹5,620
- Resistance: ₹5,760
- RSI: 52 (neutral)
- MACD: Rangebound, sideways bias
Trading Technique:
Scalp trade between ₹5,640–₹5,740. Buy on dips near ₹5,630 with SL ₹5,590. Avoid large positions unless ₹5,760 breaks convincingly.
🔵 Natural Gas (MCX) – Slides Further Amid Bearish Setup
- Closing Price: ₹289.50 / MMBtu
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹5.60
- International Spot: $3.58/MMBtu
🌐 Global Cues:
Natural Gas saw continued weakness as mild weather forecasts in the U.S. and anticipation of a larger-than-expected storage build in the next EIA report led to profit-booking.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹285
- Resistance: ₹296
- RSI: 41 (weak)
- MACD: Still bearish
Trading Technique:
Short below ₹288 for targets ₹283–₹285 with SL at ₹291. Buy only above ₹294 for a bounce. Strategy: sell on rise till reversal signal.
🌍 Global Sentiment Highlights – July 4, 2025
| Macro Factor | Market Impact |
|---|---|
| 💵 U.S. Dollar Index below 105 | Bullish for Gold/Silver |
| 🎆 U.S. Markets Closed (Holiday) | Low liquidity |
| 🇨🇳 China Caixin PMI Expansion | Boosted silver & metals |
| 🛢️ OPEC+ Tight Supply Stance | Crude Oil support |
| 🌡️ Mild U.S. Weather Outlook | Natural Gas bearish |
📊 CapitalKeeper Intraday Setup Sheet
| Commodity | Trend | Buy Zone | Target Range | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Recovery Mode | ₹96,600–₹96,700 | ₹97,400–₹97,600 | ₹96,400 |
| Silver | Strong Bullish | ₹1,07,200–₹1,07,400 | ₹1,09,000–₹1,09,500 | ₹1,06,700 |
| Crude Oil | Sideways Bias | ₹5,630–₹5,640 | ₹5,740–₹5,760 | ₹5,590 |
| Nat Gas | Bearish | ₹283–₹285 (target) | — | SL ₹291 (for shorts) |
📌 Final Word
The July 4 session saw a solid revival in bullion, supported by a weakening dollar and global macro data surprises. While Crude Oil remained stable within a tight band, Natural Gas emerged as the lone laggard, continuing its bearish slide. The week ahead will focus on U.S. inflation data, OPEC commentary, and weather developments for gas.
📢 CapitalKeeper Tip: Focus on trend continuation in Silver and reversal signs in Natural Gas. Watch for breakout trades in Gold above ₹97,450.
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