Commodity Market Wrap-Up – June 19, 2025
By CapitalKeeper | Precision Insights for Commodity Traders
On Wednesday, June 19, the commodity market showcased volatile but strategic movement across all key segments. While Crude Oil and Natural Gas continued their explosive upward momentum, Gold and Silver cooled off marginally after recent rallies, awaiting fresh global catalysts. Here’s the full analysis, including price action, global cues, and technical strategies to keep you ready for tomorrow.
🟡 Gold (MCX) – Mild Dip on Dollar Strength
- Closing Price: ₹99,315 / 10g
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹255
- International Spot: $2,354/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Gold prices eased slightly as the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded following hawkish hints in Fed comments regarding inflation vigilance. Risk-on sentiment in equity markets also drew funds away from safe havens.
📈 Technical Overview:
- Support: ₹99,000
- Resistance: ₹99,750
- RSI: 58 (neutral-to-bullish)
- MACD: Weakening positive crossover
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Ideal for buy-on-dips strategy. Accumulate near ₹99,000–₹99,100 with short-term target ₹99,700. Stop loss ₹98,850. Avoid heavy longs until clear breakout above ₹99,800.
⚪ Silver (MCX) – Pullback After Overheated Rally
- Closing Price: ₹1,07,224 / kg
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹1,894
- International Spot: $30.85/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Silver declined after reaching overbought levels, following profit-booking triggered by Fed’s stance and stabilizing industrial demand indicators from China. Base metals also cooled slightly, contributing to the drag.
📈 Technical Overview:
- Support: ₹1,06,400
- Resistance: ₹1,08,500
- RSI: 66 (coming off overbought zone)
- MACD: Momentum still positive but declining
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Look for buying opportunities near ₹1,06,500–₹1,06,700 for a rebound to ₹1,08,200. Trail SL at ₹1,05,800. Strong buying only on breakout above ₹1,08,800.
🛢️ Crude Oil (MCX) – Relentless Rally Breaks ₹6,450 Barrier
- Closing Price: ₹6,465 / barrel
- Intraday Gain: ▲ ₹105
- International Brent Crude: $90.45/bbl
🌐 Global Cues:
Crude surged again after U.S. EIA inventory data showed a drawdown of over 4 million barrels, affirming strong demand during the U.S. driving season. Ongoing production disruptions in Libya and tight OPEC+ compliance also helped.
📈 Technical Overview:
- Support: ₹6,350
- Resistance: ₹6,580
- RSI: 77 (strong overbought)
- MACD: Momentum trend is still rising
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Momentum traders can look to buy near ₹6,400–₹6,420, target ₹6,550–₹6,600. SL at ₹6,330. Avoid fresh longs if gap-up opening occurs; instead, wait for retracement.
🔵 Natural Gas (MCX) – Heatwave Surge Continues
- Closing Price: ₹356.80 / MMBtu
- Intraday Gain: ▲ ₹18.00
- International Spot: $4.18/MMBtu
🌐 Global Cues:
Natural Gas extended gains on extreme heat conditions across the U.S. and Southern Europe, causing a spike in electricity demand for cooling. Traders are now watching Thursday’s EIA storage data to confirm whether supply can keep up.
📈 Technical Overview:
- Support: ₹346
- Resistance: ₹362
- RSI: 74 (overbought)
- MACD: Strong bullish crossover intact
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Dip buying remains preferred. Entry zone ₹351–₹353, target ₹361–₹365. SL below ₹345. Volatility expected around U.S. inventory data release.
🌍 Global Sentiment Snapshot – June 19
| Global Trigger | Affected Commodity | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 U.S. Fed Hawkish Comments | Gold, Silver | Mild Negative |
| 📉 EIA Crude Inventory -4.2M Barrels | Crude Oil | Strong Positive |
| 🔥 Persistent Heatwaves in U.S./EU | Natural Gas | Bullish |
| 💵 Dollar Index Above 103.8 | Precious Metals | Bearish |
| 📊 Chinese Industrial Production Soft | Silver, Base Metals | Negative |
📊 CapitalKeeper Technical Summary Table
| Commodity | Trend | Entry Range | Target Zone | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Mildly Bullish | ₹99,000–₹99,100 | ₹99,700–₹99,800 | ₹98,850 |
| Silver | Healthy Correction | ₹1,06,400–₹1,06,700 | ₹1,08,000–₹1,08,500 | ₹1,05,800 |
| Crude Oil | Strong Uptrend | ₹6,400–₹6,420 | ₹6,550–₹6,600 | ₹6,330 |
| Nat Gas | Bullish Continuation | ₹351–₹353 | ₹361–₹365 | ₹345 |
🧭 Final Takeaway
On June 19, the energy complex led the way, with Crude Oil and Natural Gas showing robust strength driven by real-world supply-demand dynamics. Gold and Silver witnessed healthy corrections—offering value re-entry opportunities for disciplined traders. Global developments including Fed policy tone, EIA data, and weather patterns continue to guide the direction.
📌 Stay focused on technical levels, manage risk smartly, and watch for sharp moves in the second half of the week.
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