Weekly Wrap-Up Dec 29 – Jan 02: Indian Stock Market, INR & Commodities End 2025, Begin 2026 on a Mixed Note
Updated: 02 January 2026
Category: Weekly Wrap-Up | Market Analysis
By CapitalKeeper Research Desk
Weekly Market Wrap-Up: New Year 2026 Begins with Mixed Signals | Nifty, Bank Nifty, INR & Commodities (Dec 29 – Jan 02)
Indian stock market weekly wrap-up from December 29, 2025 to January 02, 2026. Detailed analysis of Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex, Fin Nifty, INR and commodities with outlook for the coming week.
Introduction: A Transition Week Between Two Market Cycles
The final trading week of December 2025, seamlessly blending into the first trading session of January 2026, turned out to be a transition phase for Indian financial markets. Investors entered the week with optimism driven by year-end positioning, global cues, and expectations of strong institutional flows in the new calendar year. However, profit booking at higher levels, mixed global signals, and cautious macro positioning led to volatile but controlled price action across indices.
While Sensex and Bank Nifty ended higher, broader market sentiment remained selective. Nifty corrected modestly from its weekly highs, reflecting the typical new-year rebalancing behavior seen among institutional participants.
This weekly wrap-up covers:
- Equity market performance
- Banking & financial sector trends
- INR movement
- Commodity market overview
- Key takeaways from the year-end transition
- Outlook for the upcoming trading week
Weekly Index Performance Snapshot
| Index | Monday Open | Friday Close | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 26,663.35 | 26,328.55 | Mild Correction |
| Bank Nifty | 59,007.05 | 60,150.95 | Strong Recovery |
| Sensex | 85,004.75 | 85,762.01 | Positive Close |
| Fin Nifty | 27,464.05 | 27,899.15 | Bullish Bias |
Nifty 50: Profit Booking at Higher Levels
The Nifty 50 began the week on a strong note near 26,663, reflecting optimism around year-end liquidity and expectations of fresh January inflows. However, as the week progressed, selling pressure emerged at higher levels, particularly in IT, FMCG, and select large-cap stocks.
Despite the decline, the index successfully defended key psychological zones, indicating that the broader trend remains intact.
Key Observations
- Resistance seen near the 26,700–26,800 zone
- Short-term profit booking dominated over fresh selling
- Market breadth remained neutral to slightly negative
Technical Structure
- Trend: Sideways to mildly corrective
- Immediate support: 26,200
- Major support: 26,000
- Resistance: 26,600 – 26,800
Bank Nifty: Leadership Returns to Banking Space
Bank Nifty emerged as the clear outperformer of the week, closing well above the 60,000 mark, a psychologically important milestone. Strength in private sector banks and renewed institutional interest supported the rally.
What Worked for Bank Nifty
- Strong momentum in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank
- Expectations of stable credit growth in FY26
- Lower stress concerns in asset quality
Market Interpretation
The outperformance of Bank Nifty indicates rotation into financially strong, high-liquidity stocks, a classic early-year institutional strategy.
Sensex: Heavyweights Drive Stability
Sensex displayed relative strength compared to the broader indices. Heavyweight stocks in banking, capital goods, and energy helped the index close higher for the week.
While intraday volatility persisted, selling pressure was absorbed efficiently, highlighting strong underlying demand.
Fin Nifty: Quiet Strength in Financials
Fin Nifty mirrored the strength of Bank Nifty, closing at 27,899.15, indicating continued investor confidence in the broader financial ecosystem, including NBFCs and insurance players.
The index structure suggests accumulation rather than distribution, a positive sign for medium-term investors.
Sectoral Performance: Selective Leadership
Top Performing Themes
- Banking & Financial Services
- Capital Goods
- Infrastructure-linked stocks
Underperforming Segments
- IT (profit booking post-rally)
- FMCG (valuation concerns)
- Select mid-cap stocks
The market showed clear selectivity, favoring balance-sheet strength over speculative themes.
Indian Rupee (INR): Stable Amid Global Uncertainty
The Indian Rupee traded within a narrow range during the week, supported by:
- Stable crude oil prices
- Controlled inflation outlook
- RBI’s proactive currency management
Key Factors Impacting INR
- Dollar index consolidation
- FII flows into banking stocks
- Moderate import-export balance
Overall, the rupee maintained stability, which is supportive for equity markets going into the new year.
Commodity Market Overview
Crude Oil
Crude prices remained range-bound, offering relief to inflation-sensitive economies like India. Stable crude supports:
- INR stability
- Lower input costs
- Improved macro visibility
Gold
Gold witnessed mild consolidation as investors reassessed global interest rate expectations. Demand remains intact as a portfolio hedge, especially amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Global Cues: Mixed But Manageable
- US markets showed year-end consolidation
- Bond yields remained stable
- Global risk appetite stayed cautious but constructive
Markets worldwide appear to be entering a wait-and-watch phase ahead of key global economic data and policy signals.
Market Psychology: From Year-End to New-Year Positioning
This week clearly reflected a change in market psychology:
- December rally participants booked profits
- Long-term investors began gradual accumulation
- Traders reduced leverage ahead of the new cycle
Such behavior often lays the foundation for healthy trend continuation.
Forecast: What to Expect in the Coming Week
Nifty Outlook
- Support: 26,200 – 26,000
- Resistance: 26,600 – 26,850
- Bias: Sideways with bullish undertone
Bank Nifty Outlook
- Support: 59,500
- Resistance: 60,500 – 61,000
- Bias: Positive, leadership intact
Key Triggers to Watch
- FII flow trends in early January
- Global inflation and bond yield movements
- Q3 earnings expectations building up
Investor Strategy for the Week Ahead
- Avoid chasing extended stocks
- Focus on banking and quality large caps
- Use corrections for staggered accumulation
- Keep risk management tight in mid-caps
Conclusion: Healthy Consolidation Before the Next Move
The final week of 2025 and the opening of 2026 delivered a textbook example of healthy market behavior. While headline indices moved in different directions, the underlying structure remained constructive.
Strength in banking stocks, INR stability, and controlled commodity prices together signal that the Indian market enters 2026 on solid footing.
Patience, discipline, and selective positioning will remain key as markets prepare for the next directional move.
FAQs
Q1. Is the market trend still bullish for 2026?
Yes, the medium-term trend remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals and sector rotation.
Q2. Which sector is leading currently?
Banking and financial services are leading the market momentum.
Q3. Should investors worry about Nifty’s correction?
No. The correction appears healthy and driven by profit booking, not structural weakness.
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Ranjit Sahoo
Founder & Chief Editor – CapitalKeeper.in
Ranjit Sahoo is the visionary behind CapitalKeeper.in, a leading platform for real-time market insights, technical analysis, and investment strategies. With a strong focus on Nifty, Bank Nifty, sector trends, and commodities, she delivers in-depth research that helps traders and investors make informed decisions.
Passionate about financial literacy, Ranjit blends technical precision with market storytelling, ensuring even complex concepts are accessible to readers of all levels. Her work covers pre-market analysis, intraday strategies, thematic investing, and long-term portfolio trends.
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