Weekly Market Wrap: Nifty Falls 217 Points, Sensex Slips 700; Rupee Holds 86, Gold Softens, Silver Outperforms (28 July – 1 Aug 2025)
By CapitalKeeper | Weekly Wrap-Up | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Weekly Wrap-up: 28th July – 1st August 2025
The last trading week of July and the first day of August 2025 proved turbulent for the Indian financial markets. Global macro cues, weak earnings from select index heavyweights, and cautious sentiment ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outlook weighed on equity indices. The rupee remained range-bound, while commodities like gold saw price softening amid waning domestic demand, with silver continuing to gain traction.
1. Weekly Performance Overview
Market Opening (28 July 2025)
- Nifty 50: 24,782.45
- Bank Nifty: 56,215.10
- Sensex: 81,299.97
- Fin Nifty: 26,684.35
Market Closing (1 August 2025)
- Nifty 50: 24,565.35
- Bank Nifty: 55,617.60
- Sensex: 80,599.91
- Fin Nifty: 26,492.50
Weekly change:
- Nifty: –217 points (–0.9%)
- Sensex: –700 points (–0.8%)
- Bank Nifty: –598 points (–1.0%)
- Fin Nifty: –192 points (–0.7%)
2. Key Market Drivers
a. Earnings Season Impact
- Mixed Q1 Results: Banking majors ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank posted steady growth, but Bajaj Finance and Axis Bank disappointed with margin compression and rising provisioning.
- Reliance Industries: Strong headline profits aided mid-week sentiment; however, analysts flagged one-off gains from stake sales, tempering enthusiasm for core O2C (oil-to-chemicals) and telecom earnings.
- IT Sector Pressure: Persistent concerns around U.S. tech spending and muted deal wins weighed on Nifty IT, dragging the index lower by 1.2% WoW.
b. Global Cues
- US Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Expectations of a prolonged high interest rate regime in the U.S. strengthened the dollar index, prompting cautious risk appetite among foreign investors.
- Oil Prices & Inflation Concerns: Brent crude hovered near USD 68–70/bbl, pressuring India’s import bill and adding to inflationary worries.
- FII/DII Flow: FIIs were net sellers to the tune of ₹4,000 crore this week, while domestic institutions cushioned the fall with modest buying.
3. Sectoral Performance
- Banking & Financials: Bank Nifty shed nearly 1% for the week, dragged by Bajaj Finance and Kotak Bank. HDFC Bank’s bonus issue provided temporary support mid-week, but selling resumed as provisioning concerns emerged.
- FMCG & Consumer: Defensive buying supported FMCG stocks like Hindustan Unilever and ITC amid market volatility.
- Metals & Energy: Mixed movement; energy stocks like ONGC and Reliance benefited from stable crude pricing, while metals corrected on weak Chinese demand data.
- IT Stocks: Continued weakness with Infosys and TCS losing ground due to weak guidance and dollar strength.
4. Indian Rupee (INR) Performance
The rupee traded in a narrow band of 85.95–86.15/USD during the week, closing almost unchanged near ₹86/USD on August 1.
Key influences:
- RBI intervention and exporter dollar sales capped volatility.
- Weak domestic equities and FII outflows exerted downward pressure.
- Strong U.S. dollar amid hawkish Fed tone limited INR gains.
Despite volatility in global markets, the rupee’s resilience was notable compared to other Asian peers.
5. Commodity Market Highlights
Gold
- Price Action: Domestic gold prices corrected from record highs of ₹101,000/10g earlier in July to around ₹98,500–99,000/10g.
- Reason: Weak physical demand during the monsoon season, high prices deterring buyers, and a stronger dollar reducing bullion appeal.
- Outlook: Expect consolidation with support near ₹97,500/10g; festive demand in August–September may revive momentum.
Silver
- Price Action: Silver outperformed gold, stabilizing around ₹112,000/kg, supported by strong industrial demand from solar and EV sectors.
- Trend: Up nearly 30% YTD; remains the preferred metal for industrial hedging.
Crude Oil
- Price Action: Brent crude hovered between USD 68–70/bbl; WTI around USD 64/bbl.
- Impact: Stable crude provided some relief to inflation but kept trade deficit concerns alive.
6. Weekly Technical Snapshot
- Nifty 50: Closed below 24,600, breaching key short-term support; next support seen at 24,400, resistance near 24,850.
- Bank Nifty: Faces strong resistance at 56,200; support emerges near 55,400.
- Fin Nifty: Range-bound between 26,400–26,700; breakout awaited for next trend direction.
- Rupee: Consolidating around 86; breakout beyond 86.20 could trigger 86.50, while 85.80 acts as support.
7. Outlook for Next Week (5–9 August 2025)
- Earnings Continuation: Key midcap and auto results could provide stock-specific moves.
- Global Triggers: U.S. Fed commentary, China PMI data, and crude oil trends will dominate sentiment.
- Domestic Factors: GST collections and RBI policy preview (due mid-August) may influence market positioning.
- Technical Watch: Nifty needs to reclaim 24,850 for momentum reversal; otherwise, consolidation between 24,400–24,700 likely.
Final Take
The week marked a cautious end to July, with Indian indices slipping amid mixed earnings and global headwinds. Banking and IT sectors faced pressure, while FMCG and selective energy names provided stability. The rupee remained resilient, and commodities saw contrasting trends — gold weakened on muted demand, while silver remained buoyant due to industrial drivers. Going ahead, investors should stay watchful of global central bank cues and domestic macro data as the next directional triggers.
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