India Weekly Market Wrap: Nifty & Sensex Fall, Rupee Weakens to ₹86.5, Gold Dips, Silver Slumps (June 21–July 25, 2025)
By CapitalKeeper | Weekly Wrap Up | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Get the latest on India’s market pulse: Nifty slips under 24,900, Sensex drops 721 points, INR hits ₹86.5, gold demand softens at ₹98,500/10 g, silver retreats amid poor industrial cues. Full recap.
1️⃣ Equity Market Snapshot
- Nifty 50 & Sensex: On Friday, July 25, Nifty declined 225 pts (–0.9%) to 24,837, while Sensex dropped 721 pts, finishing at 81,463. The sell-off was driven by weak earnings, global risk-off sentiment, and concerns in Reliance, Bajaj Finance, and IT stocks.
- Mid-week rally: Strong Q1 earnings from HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries lifted benchmarks briefly, pushing Nifty above 25,000 and Sensex up 442 pts on July 21.
2️⃣ Key Drivers: Fundamentals & Flows
- Banking resilience vs. corporate pain: Financial stocks aided mid-week rally; however, post-earnings declines in Bajaj Finance (down 5% on asset-quality fears) outweighed gains.
- Earnings bifurcation: While banks posted decent numbers, Reliance underperformed and IT sector remained weak, dampening index momentum.
- FII flows: Last week saw net equity outflows of ₹40 bn—the largest in 8 weeks—while debt investments rose ₹29 bn as global investors de-risked.
3️⃣ Currency – Indian Rupee (INR)
- The INR/USD pair weakened for the third consecutive week, slipping to 86.5150 before settling at 86.52—down 0.4% WoW.
- Pressures came from domestic equity declines, rising crude, stronger USD, and uncertainty ahead of U.S.–China trade talks and Fed decisions.
4️⃣ Commodities Round-Up
- Gold: Demand softened sharply; domestic dealers offered up to USD 15/oz discounts. Prices hovered around ₹98,500/10 g, down from peaks above ₹101,000—India’s gold imports fell 40% YoY in June.
- Silver: Also declined, undercut by weak industrial demand and poor sentiment in bullion markets.
- Crude Oil: Brent held around USD 68/bbl; elevated oil prices added headwinds to INR and inflation concerns, but still remained well below early‑June peaks near USD 78/bbl.
✅ Summary Table
| Asset | Closing Level | Weekly Change | Key Influences |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,837 | –0.9% | Bajaj Finance, Reliance, IT slump |
| Sensex | 81,463 | –0.9% (−721 pts) | Weak earnings, profit booking |
| Rupee (USD/INR) | 86.52 | –0.4% (weaker INR) | Equity outflows, oil rise, strong USD |
| Gold (Eff Price) | ₹98,500/10 g | Decline; –1%+ | Discounting, muted demand |
| Silver | Lower levels | –2%? | Industrial slack |
| Crude Oil | $68–68.4/bbl | Slight dip | Geopolitical cues, trade risk |
🧭 Outlook – What to Watch
- Markets: Next moves hinged on U.S.–India and U.S.–China trade clarity, upcoming U.S. Fed policy decisions, and quality of later Q1 earnings. Stronger financials need to be offset by broader corporate strength.
- Rupee: Range likely remains INR 86.3–86.9, barring significant equity inflows or crude retracement. RBI interventions expected if volatility spikes.
- Commodities: Gold and silver demand may remain subdued until prices retreat and physical demand revives; crude will depend on geopolitical developments and OPEC signals.
📝 Final Takeaway
This week reflected risk-off sentiment: earnings weakness in key names, foreign outflows, and global macro uncertainty weighed on equities. The rupee weakened in tandem, while commodity demand remained soft amid record-high gold prices. Watch next week for fresh catalysts: trade negotiations, Fed commentary, and corporate Q2 previews.
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