Weekly Wrap-Up (13–17 Oct 2025): Nifty Surges 700 Points | Bank Nifty, Sensex & INR Strengthen Amid Global Trade Optimism
By CapitalKeeper | Pre Market Opening | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Indian markets rallied strongly this week with Nifty up 700 points and Sensex reclaiming 84,000. Global optimism over U.S.–China trade talks and India’s oil import stance lifted sentiment. Read full weekly wrap-up and next week’s forecast.
🧭 Market Overview: Bulls Regain Control
The week ending 17th October 2025 marked a solid comeback for Indian equities after two weeks of sideways consolidation. Investors cheered signs of global trade recovery, stronger FII inflows, and firm domestic macro indicators.
The Nifty 50 opened the week at 25,177.30 and closed at 25,709.85, marking a robust gain of nearly 700 points from the weekly low, signaling renewed buying momentum. The Bank Nifty followed suit, climbing from 56,337.05 to 57,713.35, while the Sensex surged past 83,900, its highest level in over a month. The Fin Nifty also advanced smartly, closing at 27,518.60, reflecting strong participation in financials and insurance majors.
📈 Key Index Performance
| Index | Opening (Oct 13) | Closing (Oct 17) | Weekly Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,177.30 | 25,709.85 | +532.55 pts | Bullish |
| Bank Nifty | 56,337.05 | 57,713.35 | +1,376.30 pts | Strongly Bullish |
| Sensex | 82,049.16 | 83,952.19 | +1,903.03 pts | Bullish |
| Fin Nifty | 26,703.95 | 27,518.60 | +814.65 pts | Bullish |
💹 What Drove the Rally?
1️⃣ Global Tailwinds: Trump’s Trade Deal Boosts Risk Appetite
U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on “doing very well on trade negotiations with China” sparked optimism across global markets. The sentiment of easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies lifted Asian indices, and India joined the rally with strong FII inflows throughout the week.
Dow Futures, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng all saw strong green closes, supporting risk-on sentiment in emerging markets like India.
2️⃣ India’s Oil Import Policy Shift
A key macro highlight came from New Delhi’s announcement that India will no longer import crude oil from Russia, marking a significant geopolitical and economic shift.
This move, while initially seen as inflationary, was offset by expectations of diversified import sourcing and stronger rupee support from global partners. Brent crude remained range-bound around $84–$86 per barrel, ensuring limited downside impact.
3️⃣ Rupee & Bond Markets Show Stability
The INR strengthened marginally to hover near ₹82.78 per USD, aided by a stable crude basket and strong capital inflows. The 10-year G-sec yield remained steady at 6.95%, reflecting confidence in India’s macro position and stable liquidity in the system.
🏦 Sectoral Snapshot: Bulls Dominate the Board
- Banking & Financials:
Private banks led the charge with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank showing renewed strength. NBFCs like Bajaj Finance and Cholamandalam Investment recorded weekly gains of 3–5%. PSU banks also found traction as the government indicated upcoming recapitalization steps. - IT Stocks:
After weeks of underperformance, the IT index saw short-covering led by Infosys, TCS, and Tech Mahindra following positive global tech cues. Nasdaq recovery fueled this sentiment. - Energy & Commodities:
ONGC and Reliance Industries saw mixed movement after the crude import policy shift. Gold prices stayed around ₹72,500 per 10g, while silver hovered near ₹87,200/kg, indicating a neutral commodity tone. - Auto & Infra:
Tata Motors, M&M, and Ashok Leyland gained ground on festive season expectations. Infrastructure stocks like L&T, Adani Ports, and IRB Infra were among the top performers, with the Infra Index hitting a new 52-week high. - Pharma & FMCG:
Defensive buying eased as risk appetite returned. Sun Pharma and Cipla consolidated, while HUL and ITC faced minor profit booking after last week’s surge.
💱 INR & Commodity Market Summary
Rupee (INR/USD):
- Opened the week near ₹82.95
- Strengthened to ₹82.78 by Friday
- Support at ₹83.10 | Resistance at ₹82.50
The rupee benefited from consistent FII inflows and stable crude prices. Analysts expect the ₹82.50–₹83.20 range to hold in the short term.
Gold:
- MCX Gold traded between ₹72,200–₹72,800 per 10g
- Global spot gold hovered near $2,360/oz
- Investors shifted partially to equities amid easing geopolitical tensions
Crude Oil:
- Brent crude remained stable between $84–$86/barrel
- India’s shift from Russian crude will be monitored in the coming weeks
- Technically, $83.50 acts as strong support, while $88 may limit upside momentum
📊 FII & DII Activity
Foreign investors turned net buyers, pumping over ₹8,300 crore into Indian equities this week, primarily in banking and IT names. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) booked profits in select PSU and FMCG counters but maintained an overall supportive stance.
This FII inflow marks one of the strongest weekly surges since July 2025, reaffirming foreign confidence in India’s growth outlook.
🧠 Technical Analysis: Market Momentum Breakout
- Nifty Outlook:
The Nifty 50 formed a strong bullish candle on weekly charts, closing above key resistance of 25,650.
Immediate support lies near 25,320, with next resistance seen at 25,950–26,100.
RSI has moved back above 65, indicating strength, while MACD shows a bullish crossover. - Bank Nifty Outlook:
Bank Nifty’s breakout above 57,000 confirms strength in financials.
Key levels to watch: Support at 56,500, Resistance at 58,300.
Weekly close above 57,700 may open room for 58,800–59,000 next week. - Sensex Technicals:
Momentum has shifted firmly positive, supported by strong breadth.
Next target zone seen at 84,500–84,800; support around 82,800.
🌎 Global Market Recap
- Dow Jones: +2.3% WoW
- Nasdaq: +3.1% WoW
- Hang Seng: +1.8% WoW
- Nikkei 225: +1.2% WoW
The easing U.S.–China trade rhetoric and steady U.S. inflation data strengthened global risk appetite, indirectly lifting emerging market inflows.
🔮 Forecast for the Upcoming Week (20–24 Oct 2025)
Markets are likely to maintain a positive bias heading into the earnings-heavy phase.
With Nifty’s strong close above 25,700 and improving market breadth, the bias remains bullish unless a close below 25,300 occurs.
Key Drivers to Watch:
- Corporate Q2 Earnings (Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Reliance).
- Global crude oil reaction to India’s policy shift.
- U.S. bond yields and inflation data.
- INR movement and FII flow continuity.
Nifty Range Expectation: 25,350 – 26,100
Bank Nifty Range Expectation: 56,800 – 58,800
Rupee Range: ₹82.50 – ₹83.20 per USD
Gold Range: ₹71,800 – ₹73,000 per 10g
🏁 Conclusion
The week ending 17th October 2025 reaffirmed that the bulls are back in command, supported by strong macro signals, global optimism, and technical confirmations.
The 700-point surge in Nifty underscored renewed investor confidence in India’s growth story.
While short-term profit booking can’t be ruled out, the overall setup remains constructive for the upcoming week, especially in Banking, Infra, and IT sectors.
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Ranjit Sahoo
Founder & Chief Editor – CapitalKeeper.in
Ranjit Sahoo is the visionary behind CapitalKeeper.in, a leading platform for real-time market insights, technical analysis, and investment strategies. With a strong focus on Nifty, Bank Nifty, sector trends, and commodities, she delivers in-depth research that helps traders and investors make informed decisions.
Passionate about financial literacy, Ranjit blends technical precision with market storytelling, ensuring even complex concepts are accessible to readers of all levels. Her work covers pre-market analysis, intraday strategies, thematic investing, and long-term portfolio trends.
When he’s not decoding charts, Ranjit enjoys exploring coastal getaways and keeping an eye on emerging business themes.
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