Weekly Market Outlook: Study View for the Week (02 June 2025 – 07 June 2025)
🔍 A Technical and Sectoral Insight with Key Index Levels and Sectoral Rotation
🏛️ Key Event to Watch
📆 RBI Policy Meeting: 4th–6th June 2025
The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision is due on 6th June at 10:00 AM. Market participants should remain cautious and avoid aggressive bets before this event. Rate commentary and forward guidance from the RBI will likely influence banking, financial, and interest-rate sensitive sectors.
📉 Index Overview
✅ NIFTY 50 (CMP: 24,750.70)
- Technical Bias: Slightly Weak in the Short Term
- Support Zones: 24,300 | 24,060 | 23,900
- Resistance Zones: 24,900 | 25,050 | 25,300
- Outlook: Selling pressure might persist in the earlier part of the week. Avoid fresh short positions due to low long positions (~19%). Focus on dips for value buying in growth-oriented counters.
✅ BANK NIFTY (CMP: 55,749.70)
- Outlook: Expected to outperform NIFTY
- Support Zones: 54,555 | 54,900 | 55,200
- Resistance Zones: 55,950 | 56,400 | 57,000
- Focus: PSU Banks may lead the move, while Private Banks may underperform. Watch for breakouts or retests around support zones.
📈 Sectoral View – What to Watch & What to Avoid
🔼 Bullish or Strength-Showing Sectors
- 📊 PSU Banks
- Strong structure developing. Look out for SBI, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda.
- 💊 Pharma Sector
- May start outperforming after consolidation. Good setups in Sun Pharma, Divi’s Labs, Cipla.
- 📉 Midcaps & Smallcaps (NIFTY MIDCAP 100 & SMALLCAP 100)
- Stock-specific upmoves expected. Focus on fundamentally sound small caps with breakout patterns.
- ⚡ Energy & Power Sector
- Slow accumulation seen in NTPC, PowerGrid, Tata Power. Gradual strength expected.
- 💸 Financial Services Sector
- Apart from core banking, NBFCs like M&M Finance, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Ltd look attractive for the week.
🔽 Underperformers (For This Week Only)
These sectors may see profit booking, sideways movement or minor corrections:
- 🏭 Metals (e.g., Tata Steel, Hindalco)
- 💻 I.T. (e.g., Infosys, TCS)
- 🚗 Auto (e.g., Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto)
- 🧼 FMCG (e.g., HUL, Dabur)
- 🏦 Private Banks (e.g., ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank)
- 🛡️ Defense & PSE/PSUs (selected names only)
⛔ Avoid aggressive buying in the above sectors unless stock-specific breakout is visible.
⚠️ Index Derivatives Positioning
- Index Longs stand at just 19%, which is significantly low.
- ❌ Avoid shorting the index aggressively. Instead, use corrections for value buying in stocks showing higher relative strength and solid fundamentals.
📋 Strategy for the Week
- 🔍 Stick to stock-specific setups; don’t chase sectors without confirmation.
- 🧯 Strict Stop-loss is a must. Protect capital at all times.
- 💼 Book profits fast; don’t let greed override setups.
- 📉 Avoid fresh positions pre-RBI decision unless technical confirmation is evident.
📝 Watchlist Themes:
| Sector | Watchlist Stocks |
|---|---|
| PSU Banks | SBI, BoB, Canara Bank |
| Pharma | Sun Pharma, Cipla, Biocon |
| Power | NTPC, PowerGrid, Tata Power |
| Financials | M&M Finance, Bajaj Finance |
| Midcaps/Smallcaps | ITI, GPPL, Dolat Algo, Elgi Equip |
📌 Final Words
This week is event-driven due to the RBI policy, which could bring increased volatility, especially in rate-sensitive stocks. Instead of aggressive buying or selling, stay agile and react to price-action signals. The broader market tone is cautiously optimistic with a shift toward selective buying.
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“When the market rests, you prepare. Successful traders treat weekends as planning sessions—not vacations.” – CapitalKeeper
🔐 Disclaimer
This blog is intended for educational and informational purposes only. The views expressed are based on technical analysis and market patterns as of the date mentioned. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before acting on any recommendation. The author is not responsible for any financial gain or loss from trades taken based on this content.
