PRE-MARKET REPORT – 19th June 2025
By CapitalKeeper | Pre Market Opening | Indian Commodities | Market Moves That Matter
Cautious Optimism Returns After Fed Holds Rates | Nifty Hovers Near Support
By CapitalKeeper.in | Market Setup, Sectoral View & Global Signals
📰 Key Highlights
- Nifty closed at 24,812.05, attempting to stabilize near its 20-DMA.
- Fed leaves interest rates unchanged but reduces projected cuts in 2025 – triggering mixed global sentiment.
- Sensex ends at 81,444.66 and Bank Nifty at 55,828.75, with PSU banks showing relative strength.
- Fin Nifty closed at 26,399.95, suggesting short-term consolidation.
🌐 Global Market Cues – As of Midnight
| Indicator | Status |
|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | ✔️ Holds rates at 5.25–5.50%, trims 2025 cut forecast from 3 cuts to 1 |
| US Equities | 📉 S&P 500 -0.27%, Nasdaq -0.41% |
| Brent Crude Oil | 💹 ~$82.10 – rises on Middle East tensions |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ⬆️ 105.35 – Stronger dollar pressuring emerging currencies |
| US 10Y Bond Yield | 🔼 Near 4.30% – bond markets nervous |
| INR/USD | ₹83.55 – under pressure |
| FIIs Activity | ⚠️ Net sellers for the third straight day |
🔔 Takeaway: The Fed’s slightly hawkish tone and reduced rate-cut expectations for 2025 create a short-term overhang for emerging markets. Indian indices may stay volatile today.
📊 Market Recap – 18th June 2025
| Index | Close | Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,812.05 | 🔻 -41.35 pts | Choppy near support |
| Bank Nifty | 55,828.75 | 🔺 +114.60 pts | PSU banks stable |
| Sensex | 81,444.66 | 🔻 -138.64 pts | Weak broader market |
| Fin Nifty | 26,399.95 | 🔻 -51.70 pts | Consolidation zone |
📉 Nifty 50 – Technical Analysis
- Support Levels: 24,700 / 24,580
- Resistance Levels: 24,950 / 25,130
- RSI: 46 (mildly bearish)
- MACD: Still in negative crossover
- Price Action: Nifty is holding the lower edge of its rising channel; bounce likely only above 24,950
🔎 Outlook:
Until Nifty closes above 24,950, upside remains capped. Traders should avoid aggressive long positions below 24,700.
🏦 Bank Nifty – Technical Setup
- Support Zones: 55,500 / 55,100
- Resistance Zones: 56,200 / 56,550
- Trend: Range-bound; PSU banks outperforming
- RSI: 48
🔎 Outlook:
Bank Nifty is finding buying support on dips. A breakout above 56,200 could lead to quick intraday up-moves.
💼 Fin Nifty – Sideways Bias
- Support: 26,300 / 26,150
- Resistance: 26,600 / 26,850
- MACD: Flattening
- RSI: 43 (neutral zone)
🔎 Outlook:
Consolidation phase continues. Bias remains positive as long as 26,150 holds.
📊 Sector-Wise Performance Snapshot
✅ Bullish / Defensive Sectors
| Sector | Catalysts | Stocks to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| FMCG | Rotation into defensives | ITC, Dabur, HUL |
| Fertilizers | Monsoon outlook + budget speculation | Coromandel, Chambal, GNFC |
| PSU Banks | Consistent buying on dips | BoB, Union Bank, Canara Bank |
❌ Weak / Underperforming Sectors
| Sector | Reasons | Stocks to Avoid |
|---|---|---|
| IT | Global tech correction + strong dollar | Infosys, Wipro, TechM |
| Real Estate | Rate-sensitive, weak volume buildup | DLF, Oberoi Realty, Lodha |
| Auto | High input costs + weak chart patterns | Tata Motors, M&M, Hero MotoCorp |
🔎 Top 5 Stocks to Watch – 19th June 2025
| Stock | Action | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| ITC | Buy | Stable uptrend, defensive inflow |
| Coromandel Intl | Buy | Fertilizer tailwind, holding breakout |
| Union Bank | Buy | PSU outperformance, above ₹122 key level |
| Tata Motors | Sell | Weak auto structure, resistance at ₹1,010 |
| Infosys | Sell | Below 50-DMA, strong dollar risk |
🧠 Intraday Strategy – 19th June 2025
Nifty
- Buy above: 24,950 → Targets: 25,100 / 25,230
- Sell below: 24,700 → Targets: 24,580 / 24,500
- Neutral zone: 24,750–24,950 – wait for breakout confirmation
Bank Nifty
- Buy above: 56,200 → Targets: 56,550
- Sell below: 55,500 → Target: 55,100
- Best to focus on PSU banks intraday
📅 Final Thoughts
With the Fed event behind us, the focus now shifts back to:
- Monsoon progress
- FII flows
- Global bond market direction
- Corporate commentary ahead of Q1 earnings
Markets are likely to stay range-bound with stock-specific moves dominating. Sector rotation into defensives and monsoon-linked themes could continue for now.
🧠 Traders should trade light today and wait for directional confirmation above resistance levels.
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