PRE-MARKET ANALYSIS – 18th June 2025
By CapitalKeeper | Pre-Market Opening | Indian Stock Market | Market Moves That Matter
Indian Market Braces for Fed Verdict | Nifty Eyes Support Zones
🔍 Market Wrap – 17th June 2025 (Tuesday Close)
Markets closed flat to negative as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outcome, due late Wednesday IST. Benchmark indices tested key technical supports, with Bank Nifty and Fin Nifty showing resilience amid volatile global sentiment.
| Index | Close | Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,853.40 | 🔻 -49.00 pts | Consolidating near support |
| Bank Nifty | 55,714.15 | 🔻 -230.75 pts | Mild correction post bounce |
| Sensex | 81,583.30 | 🔻 -212.85 pts | Profit booking continues |
| Fin Nifty | 26,451.65 | 🔻 -103.10 pts | Range-bound, awaiting cues |
🔮 Key Global Cue: U.S. FED MEETING
- Fed Decision Expected Late Wednesday Night (IST)
- No rate change expected, but forward guidance on inflation & 2025 rate cuts in focus
- U.S. 10-Yr yields near 4.27%, Dollar Index at 105+
- Risk-off mood globally; cautious FII flows continue
- Brent crude stable near $82; INR trading weak at 83.54 vs USD
🔔 Market participants should expect high volatility from tonight into Thursday.
📈 Technical Outlook – 18th June 2025
🔹 Nifty 50 (Close: 24,853.40)
- Support: 24,750 / 24,680 / 24,580
- Resistance: 25,000 / 25,130 / 25,270
- Momentum: RSI at 47 (neutral to weak); MACD in bearish crossover
- View: Range-bound with bearish undertone unless 25,000 is reclaimed
🚫 No fresh longs below 24,680 intraday. Watch for breakdown or bounce confirmation.
🔹 Bank Nifty (Close: 55,714.15)
- Support: 55,500 / 55,100
- Resistance: 56,200 / 56,600
- Momentum: RSI cooling off; MACD flattening
- View: PSU Banks showing relative strength; Private Banks under pressure
🔹 Fin Nifty (Close: 26,451.65)
- Support: 26,350 / 26,100
- Resistance: 26,700 / 26,900
- View: NBFCs holding the line; HDFC group continues under distribution zone
📊 Sector-Wise Snapshot
🟢 Bullish/Defensive Bias
| Sector | Rationale | Stocks to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| FMCG | Defensive play amid volatility | ITC, Britannia, HUL |
| Fertilizers | Monsoon optimism; Budget anticipation | Coromandel, Chambal Fert |
| PSU Banks | Strong relative strength | Canara Bank, BoB, Union Bank |
🔴 Under Pressure / Cautious View
| Sector | Rationale | Stocks to Avoid |
|---|---|---|
| IT Sector | Weak U.S. outlook; Fed-sensitive | Infosys, TCS, TechM |
| Realty | Rate-sensitive; cautious pre-Fed | Godrej Properties, Sobha |
| Auto | Valuation-rich, technical weakness | Hero Moto, Tata Motors |
🎯 Intraday Watchlist – 18th June 2025
| Stock | Action | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| ITC | Buy | Defensive, steady RSI pattern |
| Chambal Fert | Buy | Bullish structure, volume spike |
| Union Bank | Buy | PSU bank momentum continues |
| Infosys | Sell | Weak setup, global cues negative |
| DLF | Sell | Realty weak ahead of Fed |
⚙️ Strategy For the Day
Nifty:
- 🔼 Buy Above 25,000 for 25,130 / 25,250
- 🔽 Sell Below 24,680 for 24,580 / 24,500
- ⚠️ Avoid trades in the range 24,750–25,000 unless volume confirms breakout
Bank Nifty:
- 🔼 Buy Above 56,200 for 56,600 / 56,950
- 🔽 Sell Below 55,100 for 54,850
- Use PSU Banks as relative outperformers
🎯 What to Watch Going Into Today
- Fed Speech & Dots Plot (2:30 PM IST): Key for interest rate and growth guidance.
- Brent Oil Reaction: Any jump beyond $78 might sustain selling pressure.
- Currency Movements: Sharp moves in INR post-Fed will impact margin-sensitive sectors like IT and Pharma.
- RNifty Opening: Monitor if GIFT Nifty is down 30 points, indicating risk-off sentiment .
📅 Final Thoughts
The Indian market is delicately poised at technical support ahead of the crucial U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Traders must expect heightened volatility post-Wednesday night, especially in rate-sensitive sectors like banks, real estate, and NBFCs. Defensive stocks may continue to attract interest until macro clarity emerges.
🧠 Key Dates to Watch (as per market cycle models):
- June 18: Major trend decider
- June 20–21: Potential reversal or continuation confirmation
📢 Stay nimble. Respect stop-losses. Focus on capital protection until clarity from the Fed emerges.
📈 For more technical trades, breakout strategies, and real-time updates — visit CapitalKeeper.in
e updates, trade setups, and investment insights — follow us on [Telegram] and subscribe to our newsletter!
📌 Disclaimer
The content provided on CapitalKeeper.in is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice. While we strive to present accurate and up-to-date market data and analysis, we make no warranties or representations regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of the information.
Stock market investments are subject to market risks, and readers/investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence or consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. CapitalKeeper and its authors are not liable for any loss or damage, direct or indirect, arising from the use of this information.
All views and opinions expressed are personal and do not reflect the official policy or position of any agency or organization. Past performance is not indicative of future results.By using this website, you agree to the terms of this disclaimer.
Leave a Reply