Monthly Expiry Day: Volatility Shrinks, Bulls Hold Fort – Auto & Power Stocks in Focus
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Monthly Expiry Day: Volatility Shrinks, Bulls Hold Fort – Auto & Power Stocks in Focus
By CapitalKeeper | Nifty & Bank Nifty | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Indian Indices Signals
As we step into Monthly Expiry Thursday, the Indian stock market continues to maintain an underlying bullish tone. With India VIX sliding another 5% to 12.95, and FII long positions steady at 23%, the sentiment remains constructive, though volatility compression indicates a possible breakout on either side in the sessions ahead.
Today’s session could see intraday whipsaws, so traders must use key support/resistance levels and crucial intraday timings to execute clean entries.
📊 Market Sentiment Snapshot – 26 June 2025
Metric
Reading
Implication
FII Longs
23% (Unchanged)
Consistent Bullish Bias
Nifty PCR
1.13 (↑ from 0.85)
Stronger Put Writing – Bullish
Bank Nifty PCR
0.99 (↑ from 0.92)
Balanced with upside potential
India VIX
12.95 (↓ 5%)
Compressed Volatility – poised move
Overall Bias
Bullish-to-Ranging
Buy on dips within trend
🔐 Nifty 50 – Key Technical Levels
📍 CMP: 25,244.75
🔻 Support Zones:
25,215 / 25,185 / 25,120 – Intraday expiry support
24,900 / 24,855 / 24,720 – Swing support
⚠️ Below 24,873 – Trend turns fragile
🔺 Resistance Zones:
25,300 / 25,395 – First resistance
25,440 / 25,550 – Breakout zone
📌 If Nifty sustains above 25,300–25,395, expect a sharp expiry move towards 25,550. Caution below 25,120, as downside could extend into next week.
🏦 Bank Nifty – Key Technical Levels
📍 CMP: 56,621.15
🔻 Support Zones:
56,400 / 56,100 / 55,800 / 55,350 / 55,050
🔺 Resistance Zones:
56,700 / 57,000 – Intraday resistance
57,300 / 57,450 – Breakout zone
📌 Bullish above 56,700 with upside potential to 57,450. Below 56,100, expiry pressure may drag Bank Nifty lower.
🏭 Sectoral Trends to Watch
Sector
Bias
Key Observations
Nifty / Bank Nifty
Bullish
Holding strength ahead of expiry
Energy & Power
Positive
NTPC, PowerGrid, Adani Green showing flow
Midcap 100 / Smallcap
Bullish
Stock-specific breakouts in midcaps
Financial Services
Strong
NBFCs like Bajaj Fin, HDFC holding firm
OMCs (HPCL, BPCL, IOC)
Bullish
Crude stable, refining margins supportive
Auto Sector 🚀
Breakout Watch
Tata Motors, Maruti may lead upside
🔔 Auto sector looks poised for a breakout today — traders can watch for intraday entries in Tata Motors, TVS, Maruti.
⏰ Intraday Timings to Watch
🕛 12:00 PM – Key reversal or expansion point
🕐 1:08 PM – Breakout/fakeout signal
🕑 1:59 PM – Trend continuation
🕓 2:59 PM – Expiry swing or fade
Use with 5–15 min price action, volume confirmation, and VWAP for intraday scalping or short-term trades.
Fin Nifty on Expiry – 26 June 2025
“Financial Index Strong Above 27,500 – Monthly Expiry Could Trigger Breakout”
As the Indian markets navigate monthly expiry, Fin Nifty (Financial Services Index) remains one of the most technically stable and attractive sectors. With FII index long positions unchanged at 23%, India VIX cooling off to 12.95, and Nifty PCR rising to 1.13, traders are positioning for a bullish expiry close — particularly in financial-heavy indices like Fin Nifty.
The current setup points to a potential upside breakout if 27,620+ is crossed with volume.
📊 Fin Nifty Market Setup – 26 June 2025
Parameter
Value
View
CMP
₹27,530–27,580
Consolidation with upward bias
FII Index Longs
23% (Stable)
Moderate bullish bias
India VIX
12.95 (↓ 5%)
Expiry compression – low fear
Nifty PCR
1.13
Stronger put writing
Bank Nifty PCR
0.99
Balanced sentiment
🔐 Fin Nifty Key Technical Levels
🔻 Support Zones:
27,300 – 27,380 → Expiry safety zone
27,100 – 27,180 → Swing support
26,900 – 27,000 → Breakdown level if sentiment sours
🔺 Resistance Zones:
27,620 – 27,700 → Expiry breakout level
27,850 – 28,000 → Positional breakout targets
📌 A firm expiry close above 27,620 may ignite a rally toward 28,000 next week. Sustained trading below 27,100 would weaken sentiment and attract profit booking.
📈 Technical Indicators
Indicator
Reading
Interpretation
RSI (1H Chart)
~63
Healthy uptrend
MACD
Bullish crossover
Momentum building
Volume
Average to Rising
Watch for expiry surge
Options Data
Strong base at 27,300 PE
Suggests support
🏦 Top Stocks in Fin Nifty to Watch
Stock
Bias
Action Zone
HDFC Bank
Bullish
₹2,000+ breakout level
ICICI Bank
Strong
₹1,440 immediate resistance
Bajaj Finance
Volatile
Needs to hold ₹925 for upside
IndusInd Bank
Bullish
₹850 key resistance to cross
Kotak Bank
Neutral
Still below key ₹2222 level
🔔 Most heavyweights are near trigger points. Keep watch on HDFC twins and ICICI Bank for directional moves.
🎯 CapitalKeeper Strategy View – 26 June
✅ Buy Nifty above 25,300, add on breakout above 25,395
✅ Bank Nifty long trades above 56,700 for targets: 57,300 → 57,450
🔁 Sideways volatility expected intraday, best to trade near key levels
📈 Focus on Auto, Power & Financials – rotational flow likely
❌ Exit all long bias below 25,120 (Nifty) or 56,100 (Bank Nifty)
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