Muhurat Trading Over the Last Decade: Key Market Trends, Historical Insights & Diwali 2025 Outlook
By CapitalKeeper |Muhurat Trading| Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Explore the evolution of Muhurat Trading in India over the past decade. Learn how Nifty, Sensex, and sectoral trends performed, investor psychology during this auspicious session, and what to expect in the 2025 Muhurat session.
🌟 Muhurat Trading Over the Last Decade — Key Trends & Historical Insights
Every Diwali, the Indian stock market lights up with a unique tradition — Muhurat Trading, a one-hour special session conducted by the NSE and BSE to mark the beginning of the Samvat year. Beyond rituals and sentiment, it’s a symbolic start to new wealth creation.
But how has this one-hour trading window evolved over the years?
Is Muhurat Trading just emotional buying, or does it actually hint at upcoming market trends?
Let’s decode a decade of Muhurat Trading performance, investor behavior, and what Diwali 2025 could hold.
💡 What Is Muhurat Trading?
“Muhurat” literally means auspicious time.
The tradition began decades ago when the Bombay Stock Exchange introduced it to align with the Hindu New Year during Diwali – Laxmi Puja, signifying prosperity and financial renewal.
Today, both NSE and BSE conduct a short evening session (usually 6:15–7:15 PM IST).
It’s symbolic brokers open new ledgers, families place token trades for good luck, and traders set their tone for Samvat, the new Hindu financial year.
📊 A Decade of Muhurat Trading Performance (2015–2024)
| Year | Sensex Close | % Change | Sentiment | Notable Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | +0.48% | Bullish | Early recovery post-China crisis | Renewed optimism |
| 2016 | -0.10% | Flat | Demonetisation week | Volatile session |
| 2017 | +0.63% | Positive | Global rally & India growth story | Broad-based buying |
| 2018 | +0.70% | Bullish | Post-correction bounce | Value hunting |
| 2019 | +0.49% | Mildly positive | Govt reforms & infra boost | Defensive buying |
| 2020 | +0.45% | Bullish | COVID recovery phase | Liquidity-driven rally |
| 2021 | -0.25% | Slight dip | Inflation fears | Selective profit booking |
| 2022 | +0.88% | Strong | Post-COVID boom | Strong buying in banks, autos |
| 2023 | +0.54% | Positive | India outperforming EM peers | FMCG, IT, infra lead |
| 2024 | +0.61% | Bullish | AI & manufacturing play | Midcap momentum |
Takeaway:
👉 8 out of 10 Muhurat sessions over the past decade have closed in the green.
This consistency highlights that investor sentiment during Diwali is overwhelmingly optimistic and forward-looking.
🔍 Key Trends Emerging from a Decade of Muhurat Trading
1️⃣ Tradition Meets Strategy
While the session began as a symbolic ritual, institutional participation has grown significantly.
In the last few years, FPIs, mutual funds, and HNIs have used this hour to test sentiment strength before the new Samvat.
It’s no longer just about a “lucky trade” — it’s a psychological marker of India’s economic confidence.
2️⃣ Sector Rotation Patterns
Historical data shows that banking, auto, and infra stocks tend to outperform during Muhurat sessions.
This reflects faith in India’s growth pillars.
Conversely, defensive sectors like FMCG and pharma witness stable but modest moves.
Example:
- Samvat 2079 (2022) saw Bank Nifty surge over 1%, while IT and midcaps followed with renewed strength.
- Samvat 2080 (2023) continued the trend with strong momentum in defence and capital goods.
These sector trends often set the tone for early trades of the next Samvat year.
3️⃣ Retail Investors’ Growing Role
In the last decade, India’s retail participation has more than doubled — from 2 crore active investors to over 6 crore by 2025.
Platforms like Zerodha, Groww, and Angel One have made it easy for even small investors to place a “Diwali trade” within minutes.
This surge has made Muhurat Trading a national sentiment event rather than a niche exchange ritual.
4️⃣ Muhurat Session as a Sentiment Gauge
Analysts now use Muhurat Trading as an early indicator of festive-quarter market tone.
If markets end strongly, it often signals sustained buying momentum through Q4.
Conversely, a flat or negative session can indicate upcoming consolidation or cautious sentiment.
Example:
- The flat Muhurat session in 2021 accurately predicted the market’s sideways movement for the next two months.
5️⃣ Midcap & Smallcap Resurgence
Recent years have witnessed a shift from large-cap dominance to broad-based midcap participation.
Retail enthusiasm and sector diversification are pushing smaller companies into the spotlight — often leading to outsized returns post-Muhurat.
2023–24 data shows midcaps outperforming Nifty by 2–3% in the following fortnight after the Muhurat session.
⚙️ Investor Psychology — The Festive FOMO Factor
Muhurat Trading represents more than a financial activity — it’s a cultural ritual of optimism.
Even conservative investors participate symbolically to “start the year with Laxmi’s blessings.”
But this positive psychology also drives short-term overenthusiasm:
- Overbuying high-beta stocks.
- Ignoring valuation discipline.
- Entering trades based purely on emotion.
Hence, while it’s a time for optimism, rational portfolio alignment should remain key.
🧮 Does Muhurat Trading Predict Future Market Direction?
Historical evidence suggests that Muhurat performance often sets a tone but not necessarily a trend.
- Out of the last 10 Samvat years, 6 years saw markets closing higher over the following month.
- However, when Muhurat sessions showed excessive euphoria, corrections followed within 2–4 weeks.
So while it’s not a guaranteed signal, it’s a reflection of prevailing confidence and liquidity.
📈 Samvat 2081 – Muhurat Trading 2025 Outlook
As India enters Samvat 2081, the mood remains constructive yet cautious.
With global headwinds (interest rate transitions, US election volatility) and domestic optimism (capex cycle, robust GDP growth), traders are watching:
- Banking & infra stocks for leadership
- AI, semiconductors, and manufacturing themes for momentum
- IT & export-oriented sectors for valuation recovery
Market experts predict that Diwali 2025’s Muhurat session could see:
- Mild gains led by Nifty50 and BankNifty
- Heavy action in midcap momentum names
- Positive cues from global ETF inflows
🪙 How Investors Should Approach Muhurat 2025
- Participate symbolically — Buy a small quantity of a quality stock or ETF.
- Avoid speculative trades — Don’t chase quick gains.
- Use it as a portfolio reset moment — Align your holdings with 2025 themes (defence, EVs, AI, infra).
- Track global cues — Oil, dollar index, and bond yields impact post-festival trends.
- Stay disciplined — The real wealth creation begins after Diwali, not during that one hour.
🔔 Final Thoughts
Muhurat Trading is India’s perfect blend of tradition and modern finance.
Over the last decade, it has transformed from a ceremonial session into a symbol of investor confidence and economic optimism.
While the Diwali hour often brings green candles and festive cheers, the true essence lies in long-term conviction, risk management, and smart sectoral exposure.
As Samvat 2081 dawns, the message is clear:
Trade with optimism, but invest with wisdom.
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Ranjit Sahoo
Founder & Chief Editor – CapitalKeeper.in
Ranjit Sahoo is the visionary behind CapitalKeeper.in, a leading platform for real-time market insights, technical analysis, and investment strategies. With a strong focus on Nifty, Bank Nifty, sector trends, and commodities, she delivers in-depth research that helps traders and investors make informed decisions.
Passionate about financial literacy, Ranjit blends technical precision with market storytelling, ensuring even complex concepts are accessible to readers of all levels. Her work covers pre-market analysis, intraday strategies, thematic investing, and long-term portfolio trends.
When he’s not decoding charts, Ranjit enjoys exploring coastal getaways and keeping an eye on emerging business themes.
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