Indian Stock Market Pre-Market Report 29 Sep 2025 | Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex, Gift Nifty & Stock Picks
By CapitalKeeper | Pre Market Opening | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Pre-market analysis for 29 Sept 2025: Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex, Fin Nifty with Gift Nifty cues, sector outlook, and stock ideas. Key trades include Aarey Drugs breakout, Crompton 300 CE, IOC 150 CE, and CNX Realty support zone.
Pre-Market Report – Indian Stock Market (29th September 2025)
The Indian stock market has endured a steep correction over the past week, with both benchmarks and sectoral indices coming under pressure. On 26 September 2025, the indices closed sharply lower:
- Nifty 50: 24,654.79
- Bank Nifty: 54,389.35
- Sensex: 80,426.46
- Fin Nifty: 25,985.25
The recent decline has erased almost 800 points from Nifty, exactly in line with the earlier resistance levels flagged in our analysis. This correction has now pushed the market into an oversold zone, setting up the possibility of a short-covering rally as traders head into the month-end F&O expiry week.
🌍 Global Market Cues
- US Markets: Wall Street closed weak with Dow and S&P in red as US bond yields remained elevated. Tech stocks dragged Nasdaq further down.
- Europe: FTSE and DAX ended flat, with energy shares mixed on volatile crude prices.
- Asia: Asian indices are showing mild recovery this morning. Nikkei trades higher while Hang Seng continues to struggle on property market stress.
- Crude Oil: Brent crude hovers near $84.7/barrel, giving some relief to importers after last week’s rise.
- Gold: Spot gold at $2,055/oz, showing steady safe-haven demand.
- Dollar & Bonds: US dollar index remains elevated near 106, while US 10-year yields are firm.
Takeaway: The global backdrop remains cautious, but with commodities stable and Asian markets recovering, India could witness short-covering in beaten-down sectors.
📊 Technical Analysis of Key Indices
Nifty 50
- Close: 24,654.79
- Support: 24,500 – 24,380
- Resistance: 24,850 – 25,050
- After an 800-point slide, Nifty is now trading near strong support zones. Hourly RSI is oversold, suggesting a technical bounce is possible if 24,850 is reclaimed. Sustaining above 25,050 will confirm strength.
Bank Nifty
- Close: 54,389.35
- Support: 54,000 – 53,600
- Resistance: 54,900 – 55,200
- Bank Nifty fell sharply but remains above 54,000. PSU banks show resilience, while private banks dragged the index. Short-covering rally is possible toward 55,000 if support holds.
Sensex
- Close: 80,426.46
- Support: 80,000 – 79,500
- Resistance: 81,200 – 81,700
- Sensex corrected from its 82,100 resistance zone as projected earlier. The 80,000 level is a psychological support, and holding this may trigger a pullback.
Fin Nifty
- Close: 25,985.25
- Support: 25,750 – 25,500
- Resistance: 26,200 – 26,450
- Fin Nifty has seen steady selling, but a reversal is possible if it sustains above 26,200.
Gift Nifty Outlook
Gift Nifty is indicating a marginally higher open, reflecting potential short-covering bounce after last week’s relentless fall. Traders should watch whether the bounce sustains above resistance zones.
🏭 Sectoral Outlook
| Sector | Bias | Key View |
|---|---|---|
| Pharma/Midcaps 💊 | ✅ Positive | Aarey Drugs showing strong breakout. Short-term accumulation. |
| Real Estate 🏠 | ⚠️ Neutral-to-Positive | CNX Realty oversold near 850–860; rebound possible. |
| Banks 🏦 | ⚖️ Neutral | PSU banks stable, private banks weak; expiry-driven moves expected. |
| Oil & Gas 🛢️ | ✅ Positive | IOC option setup favorable; crude prices stable. |
| Consumption 🍴 | ✅ Positive | Crompton showing short-term breakout structure. |
🔥 Stocks & Derivatives to Watch
1. Aarey Drugs (CMP ₹78)
- Setup: Resistance breakout with strong volumes.
- Indicators: Daily and weekly MACD in positive crossover.
- Outlook: Short-term bullish momentum; could head toward ₹85–90 levels.
2. CNX Realty (Index ~850–860)
- Setup: Testing crucial support zone.
- Indicators: Hourly RSI oversold.
- Outlook: Possibility of rebound toward 890–910 if support holds. Traders should track stocks like DLF, Oberoi Realty, and Godrej Properties for short-covering moves.
3. Aditya Birla Capital (ABCAPITAL)
- Alert: Reversal seen with a trendline breakdown.
- Outlook: Stock may remain under pressure. Any rallies should be sold into with strict stop-loss.
4. Crompton Greaves (CMP ₹292.60)
- Options Setup: October 300 CE @ 7.50
- Cash Target: ₹310–315
- Stop Loss: ₹287
- Outlook: Stock consolidating near resistance; breakout move possible in October expiry.
5. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC CMP ₹145.04)
- Options Setup: October 150 CE @ 1.95
- Target: ₹160–162
- Stop Loss: 1.15
- Outlook: Stable crude supports IOC; bullish options setup for expiry traders.
⚡ Market Strategy for the Day
- Expiry Factor: With month-end F&O expiry this week, expect volatility and sharp intraday swings.
- Short-Covering Play: After Nifty’s 800-point fall, a relief rally is likely. Avoid fresh aggressive shorts.
- Sector Rotation: Focus on Pharma (Aarey Drugs), Realty (CNX Realty), and Energy (IOC).
- Options Strategies: Crompton 300 CE and IOC 150 CE provide good risk-reward for October expiry.
- Risk Management: Keep strict stop-loss levels; indices remain weak in broader structure.
✅ Conclusion
The Indian market begins the week of 29 September 2025 at oversold levels, with traders eyeing short-covering bounce ahead of expiry. While Nifty and Bank Nifty face strong resistance zones, the market structure indicates a chance for selective recovery.
Stock-specific plays like Aarey Drugs (breakout), Crompton (300 CE), IOC (150 CE), and CNX Realty (support zone) can outperform. However, caution is needed as the broader trend remains weak after last week’s heavy fall.
Trading Mantra: Play the short-covering bounce, but stay disciplined with stop-losses.
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Ranjit Sahoo
Founder & Chief Editor – CapitalKeeper.in
Ranjit Sahoo is the visionary behind CapitalKeeper.in, a leading platform for real-time market insights, technical analysis, and investment strategies. With a strong focus on Nifty, Bank Nifty, sector trends, and commodities, she delivers in-depth research that helps traders and investors make informed decisions.
Passionate about financial literacy, Ranjit blends technical precision with market storytelling, ensuring even complex concepts are accessible to readers of all levels. Her work covers pre-market analysis, intraday strategies, thematic investing, and long-term portfolio trends.
When he’s not decoding charts, Ranjit enjoys exploring coastal getaways and keeping an eye on emerging business themes.
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