Commodity Market Wrap-Up (27 June 2025): Gold Crashes Below ₹95,500, Crude Oil Drops, Silver Holds – Key Technical Levels & Trading Setups
By CapitalKeeper | Market Wrap-Up | Indian Commodities | Market Moves That Matter
Friday’s commodity trade session ended with a sharp bearish sentiment, especially in precious metals and crude oil, as traders reacted to strong U.S. economic data, rising dollar strength, and weak Chinese demand signals. Gold crashed below ₹95,500, hitting its lowest in weeks, while Crude Oil remained pressured amid demand concerns. Interestingly, Silver showed relative strength, and Natural Gas saw limited downside.
Let’s analyze today’s market action, key global cues, and smart trade setups for the next session.
🟡 Gold (MCX) – Major Breakdown Below ₹96,000
- Closing Price: ₹95,350 / 10g
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹1,610
- International Spot Price: ~$2,286/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Gold extended losses due to a strong U.S. Dollar Index above 105.5, coupled with rising U.S. bond yields and reduced safe-haven demand. A surge in U.S. consumer sentiment data further pushed gold lower.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹94,800
- Resistance: ₹96,100
- RSI: 35 (oversold zone nearing)
- MACD: Bearish continuation
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Watch for reversal signs near ₹94,800–₹95,000. Risk-reward entry possible above ₹95,400 with target ₹96,000. SL at ₹94,750. Trend favors sell-on-rise until price crosses ₹96,100.
⚪ Silver (MCX) – Shows Resilience Despite Gold Crash
- Closing Price: ₹1,05,172 / kg
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹421
- International Spot Price: ~$30.62/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Silver remained buoyant, supported by firm industrial metal prices and positive Chinese infrastructure outlook despite overall macro weakness. The Gold/Silver ratio dropped slightly, indicating Silver outperformance.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹1,04,400
- Resistance: ₹1,06,200
- RSI: 57 (neutral)
- MACD: Mildly bullish crossover holding
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Buy near ₹1,04,800–₹1,05,000 for a bounce toward ₹1,06,000. SL at ₹1,04,300. Momentum pick-up expected above ₹1,06,200.
🛢️ Crude Oil (MCX) – Slips on Demand Worries & Inventory Build
- Closing Price: ₹5,569 / barrel
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹98
- International Brent: ~$82.90/bbl
🌐 Global Cues:
Crude remained under pressure as weekly U.S. EIA data showed a build in gasoline stockpiles, while China’s refinery output also dropped unexpectedly. Broad global risk-off sentiment added fuel to the downside.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹5,500
- Resistance: ₹5,680
- RSI: 44 (bearish)
- MACD: Weak and flattening
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Short below ₹5,540 for targets ₹5,480–₹5,500 with SL at ₹5,590. Alternatively, go long above ₹5,600 only if price sustains, targeting ₹5,700.
🔵 Natural Gas (MCX) – Mild Correction Amid Weather Volatility
- Closing Price: ₹316.80 / MMBtu
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹8.30
- International Spot: ~$3.82/MMBtu
🌐 Global Cues:
Natural Gas slipped mildly after cooler-than-expected U.S. temperature forecasts and lower electricity burn expectations for the weekend. Traders now look forward to next week’s EIA report and updated weather models.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹310
- Resistance: ₹323
- RSI: 52 (neutral)
- MACD: Neutralizing after strong rally
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Look for dip buying around ₹312–₹314 with SL at ₹308. Short if price breaks below ₹310 convincingly. Range-bound trades between ₹310–₹322 are likely.
🌐 Key Global Influences – June 27 Recap
| Global Factor | Impact on Commodities |
|---|---|
| 💵 Strong U.S. Dollar Index (105.5+) | Bearish for Gold, Crude |
| 📈 U.S. Economic Data Surprise | Pressured precious metals |
| 🧾 EIA Inventory Build | Bearish for Crude |
| 🇨🇳 Weak China Refinery Output | Bearish for Oil & Metals |
| 🌡️ Cooling U.S. Weather Forecast | Negative for Natural Gas |
📊 CapitalKeeper Trading Dashboard
| Commodity | Trend | Ideal Entry Zone | Target Zone | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bearish | ₹94,800–₹95,400 | ₹96,000–₹96,100 | ₹94,750 |
| Silver | Neutral-Bullish | ₹1,04,800–₹1,05,000 | ₹1,06,000–₹1,06,300 | ₹1,04,300 |
| Crude Oil | Weak | ₹5,540–₹5,580 | ₹5,680–₹5,700 | ₹5,500 (longs) |
| Nat Gas | Sideways | ₹312–₹314 | ₹322–₹325 | ₹308 |
📌 Final Takeaway
June 27 ended the week with decisive weakness in Gold and Crude, a holding pattern for Natural Gas, and a surprising show of strength in Silver. The market is now at a critical juncture with technical oversold signals emerging in Gold and Crude, while macroeconomic data will continue to dominate direction into early July.
📢 Trader Tip: Watch for reversal patterns on hourly candles—doji, hammer, bullish engulfing—especially in Gold and Oil. Momentum will likely reset next week after this heavy unwinding.
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