Commodity Market Wrap-Up – June 20, 2025
By CapitalKeeper | Daily Analysis of Gold, Silver, Crude & Natural Gas
The commodity markets ended mixed on Thursday, June 20, 2025, as global cues and profit-booking activity drove price action across segments. While Natural Gas extended its rally to fresh multi-month highs, Gold and Silver witnessed further pressure amid a stronger dollar. Crude Oil remained largely rangebound, with signs of fatigue after a strong run.
Let’s break down the day’s movements, global drivers, and technical insights to help you trade smarter.
🟡 Gold (MCX) – Under Pressure Amid Dollar Strength
- Closing Price: ₹98,612 / 10g
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹703
- International Spot Price: ~$2,345/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Gold saw continued selling as the U.S. Dollar Index firmed above 104, bolstered by hawkish Fed rhetoric and better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims. Investors preferred holding cash or rotating into equities as volatility stayed low.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹98,200
- Resistance: ₹98,900
- RSI: 47 (weakening trend)
- MACD: Negative crossover confirmed
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Wait for reversal confirmation. Look to buy near ₹98,250 with strict SL at ₹98,000 for a rebound to ₹98,800. Avoid aggressive longs until price reclaims ₹98,900.
⚪ Silver (MCX) – Follows Gold’s Weakness, Corrects Sharply
- Closing Price: ₹1,06,349 / kg
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹875
- International Spot Price: ~$30.48/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Silver tracked gold lower, pressured by subdued base metal sentiment and fading Chinese stimulus optimism. Industrial demand concerns due to soft macro data weighed on short-term outlook.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹1,05,500
- Resistance: ₹1,07,200
- RSI: 53 (neutral)
- MACD: Trend weakening, possible bearish cross
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Buy near ₹1,05,600–₹1,05,800 for bounce toward ₹1,07,000. Keep SL at ₹1,04,800. Sell-on-rise strategy may be used for quick intraday moves until fresh breakout above ₹1,07,500.
🛢️ Crude Oil (MCX) – Sideways Move After Rally
- Closing Price: ₹6,350 / barrel
- Intraday Move: ▼ ₹115
- International Brent Crude: ~$89.20/bbl
🌐 Global Cues:
Crude Oil cooled off after touching multi-week highs earlier this week. Traders booked profits amid stable U.S. inventory data and signs of weaker gasoline demand. Rising rig counts in the U.S. also put a lid on upside.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹6,250
- Resistance: ₹6,430
- RSI: 62 (still bullish)
- MACD: Momentum fading but positive
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Buy on dip near ₹6,280–₹6,300 for a bounce to ₹6,420. SL at ₹6,220. Break below ₹6,250 may lead to deeper correction towards ₹6,100.
🔵 Natural Gas (MCX) – Heatwave Frenzy Drives Prices Up
- Closing Price: ₹358.30 / MMBtu
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹1.50
- International Spot Price: ~$4.24/MMBtu
🌐 Global Cues:
Natural Gas prices edged higher for a fifth consecutive session, driven by persistent heatwaves across U.S. cities and stronger-than-expected power consumption. Traders remained bullish ahead of next week’s EIA data.
📈 Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹350
- Resistance: ₹362
- RSI: 76 (overbought)
- MACD: Strong upward trend
🛠️ Trading Technique:
Fresh longs risky at current levels due to overbought RSI. Better to buy on dip around ₹352–₹354 with target ₹362–₹365. SL at ₹348.
🌍 Global Highlights – What Moved Markets?
| Global Driver | Commodity Impact |
|---|---|
| 💵 Dollar Index >104 | Bearish for Gold & Silver |
| 🏦 Hawkish Fed Tone | Mild risk-off sentiment |
| 🔥 U.S. Heatwaves Continue | Bullish for Natural Gas |
| 🛢️ Stable U.S. Oil Inventories | Neutral for Crude |
| 🧾 Weekly Jobless Claims Strong | Bearish for precious metals |
📊 CapitalKeeper Trade Radar
| Commodity | Trend | Buy Zone | Target Zone | SL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Weakening | ₹98,250–₹98,350 | ₹98,800–₹99,000 | ₹98,000 |
| Silver | Mild Bearish | ₹1,05,600–₹1,05,800 | ₹1,07,000–₹1,07,300 | ₹1,04,800 |
| Crude Oil | Rangebound | ₹6,280–₹6,300 | ₹6,400–₹6,450 | ₹6,220 |
| Nat Gas | Overbought | ₹352–₹354 | ₹362–₹365 | ₹348 |
📌 Conclusion
June 20 closed with clear signs of sector rotation in commodities:
- Precious metals corrected on macro headwinds, but technicals suggest potential bounce zones.
- Crude Oil faced resistance near recent highs.
- Natural Gas remains the top-performing segment, but caution is warranted due to overbought levels.
💡 Smart strategy now is to book partial profits in energy and look for value entries in Gold and Silver near technical supports.
📢 Stay tuned with CapitalKeeper for daily strategies, actionable levels, and global-driven trade calls that help you stay ahead.
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