CapitalKeeper Sunday Digest: Market Wrap (22–26 Sept 2025) | Nifty, Bank Nifty, Midcaps, Global Cues
By CapitalKeeper | Sunday Digest | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Catch the CapitalKeeper Sunday Digest for 22–26 Sept 2025. Market wrap with Nifty, Bank Nifty, midcaps, small-caps action, Reliance effect, global cues, and outlook for the upcoming week.
📌 Weekly Market Overview (22nd – 26th September 2025)
The final full trading week of September 2025 unfolded with high volatility, sharp sector rotations, and midcap resilience, keeping traders and investors on their toes. Despite global uncertainties, the Indian market showcased relative strength, with Nifty holding above 24,600–24,700 zones and attempting to reclaim higher levels towards 25,000.
Bank Nifty, however, remained the underperformer, dragging on sentiment due to profit booking in heavyweights like HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank. On the other hand, midcaps and small caps once again stole the spotlight, reflecting strong retail participation and sector-specific momentum.
By Friday’s close (26th September), Nifty settled at 24,654.70, Bank Nifty ended at 54,389.35, while Sensex closed at 80,426.46.
🌍 Global Cues Driving Market Sentiment
- US Federal Reserve Policy Path
- Investors closely tracked the Fed’s commentary amid sticky US inflation. While no rate hike is expected in September, the possibility of one more rate action in 2025 kept global markets cautious.
- US bond yields spiked midweek, pulling down risk assets before a rebound on Friday.
- Crude Oil Volatility
- Brent crude hovered between $84–$87 per barrel, leading to mixed market reactions. Higher crude posed risks for Indian macros, especially inflation and CAD, but softer movement later in the week brought relief.
- China Stimulus Expectations
- Chinese authorities signaled more fiscal and monetary support to boost growth. Metals and commodity-linked stocks in India, like Hind Copper and Vedanta, gained strength on hopes of demand revival from China.
🇮🇳 Domestic Market Action & Key Highlights
🔹 NSE Derivatives Expiry Shift
- NSE’s big move to shift all derivative expiries from Thursday to Tuesday (effective Aug 29, 2025) continued to influence traders’ positioning. Volumes saw a redistribution, and weekly options strategies are adapting.
🔹 Sector Spotlight: Retail Sector Boom
- A Deloitte–FICCI report projected India’s retail sector to nearly double to $1.93 trillion by 2030 from $1.06 trillion in 2024. This 10% CAGR growth outlook boosted sentiment in retail-focused companies and FMCG plays.
🔹 Reliance AGM Aftermath
- Reliance AGM earlier in August continues to ripple through markets. Focus on green energy, telecom monetization, and retail expansion has kept Reliance in momentum, indirectly supporting the index.
🔹 Government Policy Buzz
- Reports of a proposal to reduce GST on fertilizers from 18% to 5% brought action in fertilizer stocks like NFL, RCF, Chambal, and GSFC.
- Supportive rural measures are expected to aid consumption recovery in the coming festive season.
📊 Midcap & Small Cap Action – Retail Euphoria Continues
Midcaps and small caps extended their outperformance, shrugging off index volatility. Retail and HNI participation remained strong.
- Metals: Hind Copper surged after a strong trendline breakout, supported by global metal demand optimism.
- Engineering/Defence: MTAR Tech displayed strength with volume-backed breakout, highlighting defence and engineering sector tailwinds.
- Auto Ancillaries: JBMA rallied with bullish momentum as auto sales projections for the festive season looked robust.
- Speciality Finance & New Age Retail: Mid-tier NBFCs and retail tech names attracted flows on the back of sector expansion reports.
The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices closed the week higher by 1.2% and 1.5% respectively, outperforming large caps.
🔮 Market Outlook for the Week Ahead (29th Sept – 3rd Oct 2025)
The upcoming week is crucial as September expiry dynamics fade and focus shifts to:
- Quarter-End Flows
- Mutual fund rebalancing and FPIs’ month-end adjustments could drive volatility.
- Nifty Key Levels
- Nifty must sustain above 24,700–24,750 for momentum to push towards 25,000 and 25,270.
- On the downside, 24,350–24,400 remains the immediate support zone.
- Bank Nifty Lag
- Needs to reclaim 54,800–55,000 for sustained upside. If weakness persists, it may continue to weigh on sentiment.
- Stock-Specific & Sectoral Plays
- Expect momentum in midcaps, auto, defence, and retail stocks, while IT and banks may remain range-bound.
- Global Macro Monitoring
- US economic data, bond yields, and crude price movements remain the biggest external risks.
📝 CapitalKeeper Takeaway
The week showcased a classic rotation-driven market: while large-cap indices consolidated, midcaps and small caps thrived, riding strong retail flows and supportive sectoral triggers.
The Reliance AGM optimism, retail sector growth projections, fertilizer GST buzz, and global commodity cues added layers of momentum. With the expiry shift adjustment settling in, the market looks set for a crucial test around 25,000 on Nifty.
Investors should stay cautious yet opportunistic, focusing on sector breakouts, midcap leaders, and global developments.
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Ranjit Sahoo
Founder & Chief Editor – CapitalKeeper.in
Ranjit Sahoo is the visionary behind CapitalKeeper.in, a leading platform for real-time market insights, technical analysis, and investment strategies. With a strong focus on Nifty, Bank Nifty, sector trends, and commodities, she delivers in-depth research that helps traders and investors make informed decisions.
Passionate about financial literacy, Ranjit blends technical precision with market storytelling, ensuring even complex concepts are accessible to readers of all levels. Her work covers pre-market analysis, intraday strategies, thematic investing, and long-term portfolio trends.
When he’s not decoding charts, Ranjit enjoys exploring coastal getaways and keeping an eye on emerging business themes.
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