CapitalKeeper Sunday Digest (29 Sept – 03 Oct 2025): Nifty Near 25,000; Global Cues, Midcap Momentum & Festive Season Outlook
By CapitalKeeper | Sunday Digest | Indian Equities | Market Moves That Matter
Read CapitalKeeper’s Sunday Digest for 29th Sept–3rd Oct 2025: A complete wrap of Nifty’s move toward 25,000, midcap and small-cap resilience, sectoral trends, global cues, and how Indian markets may react next week amid festive optimism.
📰 CapitalKeeper Sunday Digest: 29th Sept – 03rd Oct 2025
As we step into the final quarter of 2025, the Indian stock market closed the first week of October with a decisive tone of optimism. The Nifty50 tested the 25,000 psychological mark, the Sensex hovered near 81,000, and Bank Nifty showed strong resilience above 55,500 signaling that bulls are not ready to give up their grip yet.
But beneath the surface, midcaps and smallcaps continued to be the star performers, while select largecaps took a breather. The week was characterized by short-covering in index call options, renewed foreign inflows, and a steady decline in volatility all of which point to a constructive undertone in the market.
🌍 Global Market Recap: A Mixed But Stabilizing Week
Global cues remained mixed but supportive.
- US Markets: The S&P 500 ended the week marginally higher as the Federal Reserve’s comments hinted at a potential pause in rate hikes, keeping risk assets afloat.
- Europe: The Eurozone inflation print came in softer-than-expected, reinforcing expectations that the ECB may adopt a dovish tone in upcoming policy meetings.
- Asia: China’s stimulus efforts including liquidity injections and property-sector support helped lift Asian sentiment. The Hang Seng and Nikkei ended higher for the week.
- Crude Oil & USD: Brent crude stabilized near $88/barrel, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) cooled off from highs providing relief to emerging market equities like India.
The net result: Global risk sentiment improved, supporting flows into Indian equities ahead of the festive and earnings season.
📈 Indian Market Highlights (29 Sept – 03 Oct 2025)
| Index | Weekly Open | Weekly Close | % Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,728 | 24,894 | +0.67% | Bullish Bias |
| Sensex | 80,550 | 81,207 | +0.81% | Strong |
| Bank Nifty | 54,460 | 55,589 | +2.07% | Outperforming |
| Fin Nifty | 26,265 | 26,426 | +0.61% | Stable |
The week’s highlight was the short-covering rally in Bank Nifty, which absorbed the recent selling pressure and closed the week on a strong note. PSU Banks and select private lenders contributed to the upside.
🏦 Sector-Wise Performance Snapshot
| Sector | Weekly Trend | Key Observation |
|---|---|---|
| Banking (PSU > Pvt) | 🚀 Strong | PSU Banks outperformed, led by SBI, BoB, and Canara Bank. |
| Auto | ⚖️ Neutral | Slight consolidation after a strong pre-festive rally. |
| Pharma | 🩺 Positive | Defensive buying visible; Sun Pharma & Lupin led gains. |
| Energy & Power | ⚡ Positive | Renewed strength in NTPC, PowerGrid, and Adani Power. |
| Metals | 🏗️ Mixed | Hindalco & Tata Steel saw profit booking; Hind Copper gained. |
| IT | 💻 Soft | Weak global demand outlook weighed on sentiment. |
| Midcap & Smallcap Index | 📊 Outperforming | Broader market sentiment remained robust with rotational buying. |
💡 Key Market Observations
- Short-covering in 24,700–25,000 CE options triggered a late-week surge.
- FIIs remained net buyers, especially in financials and autos.
- India VIX dropped below 13, showing growing investor confidence.
- Rupee remained stable around ₹83.20/USD no major volatility.
- Nifty breadth improved, with 36 out of 50 stocks closing in green.
📊 Technical View
- Nifty: Resistance now seen at 25,050–25,270; support at 24,550–24,350.
A breakout above 25,270 can open gates toward 25,500–25,700 levels in the coming week. - Bank Nifty: Support at 55,000, resistance at 56,000–56,400.
PSU banks continue to lead momentum; ICICI Bank and Axis Bank may join the rally next week. - Fin Nifty: Trading steady within 26,200–26,600; breakout above 26,600 could signal a fresh up-leg.
🔍 Midcap & Smallcap Action
The midcap and smallcap segments remain the engine of this market rally. Despite valuation concerns, liquidity and retail participation are driving sustained upmoves. Stocks from infrastructure, manufacturing, defense ancillaries, and specialty chemicals saw rotational momentum.
- Midcap outperformers: Kfintech, Elgi Equip, and GPPL
- Smallcap gainers: DolatAlgo, Star Health, and HindCopper
The broader market may witness stock-specific action as the quarterly results season approaches, with traders shifting toward value midcaps showing earnings visibility.
🧭 Outlook for Next Week (07–11 Oct 2025)
- Nifty likely to consolidate between 24,600–25,300.
- Bank Nifty could continue its outperformance, with PSU names in focus.
- Auto and FMCG may witness pre-festive accumulation.
- Midcaps and smallcaps expected to stay in play with rotational buying.
- Global cues: Watch US jobs data and crude oil movement closely they may set early-week direction.
💬 CapitalKeeper Analyst’s View
“The market tone remains bullish but rotational. The undercurrent of liquidity, both domestic and foreign, remains strong. While Nifty faces resistance around 25,200–25,300, dips remain buying opportunities in quality names particularly in banking, energy, and midcap manufacturing. The festive quarter could see renewed momentum in consumption-driven sectors.”
💼 5 Stocks on the Radar (For Study Purpose Only)
| Stock | CMP (₹) | Observation | Support | Target Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITI | 309 | Narrow range breakout with volume | 270–275 | 340–360 |
| HindCopper | 280 | Trendline breakout, positive MACD | 230–240 | 320–350 |
| JBMA | 712 | Bullish MACD, breakout confirmation | 600–610 | 780–820 |
| MTAR Tech | 1678 | Trendline breakout with strong volume | 1440–1450 | 1850–1950 |
| IdeaForge | 517 | Reversed from 61.8% Fibonacci zone | 420–440 | 580–600 |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Always consult a financial advisor before trading or investing.
🔖 Conclusion
The CapitalKeeper Sunday Digest (29 Sept – 03 Oct 2025) paints a picture of a resilient Indian market navigating global headwinds with confidence. With Nifty approaching 25,000, Bank Nifty showing leadership, and midcaps continuing to surprise, investors enter October with optimism backed by liquidity and stability.
The upcoming week will likely see sectoral rotation, profit-booking in select pockets, and fresh momentum in consumption, energy, and financials setting the tone for the festive quarter.
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Ranjit Sahoo
Founder & Chief Editor – CapitalKeeper.in
Ranjit Sahoo is the visionary behind CapitalKeeper.in, a leading platform for real-time market insights, technical analysis, and investment strategies. With a strong focus on Nifty, Bank Nifty, sector trends, and commodities, she delivers in-depth research that helps traders and investors make informed decisions.
Passionate about financial literacy, Ranjit blends technical precision with market storytelling, ensuring even complex concepts are accessible to readers of all levels. Her work covers pre-market analysis, intraday strategies, thematic investing, and long-term portfolio trends.
When he’s not decoding charts, Ranjit enjoys exploring coastal getaways and keeping an eye on emerging business themes.
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