Commodity Market Wrap-Up – June 18, 2025 By CapitalKeeper | Evening Technical Recap & Global Sentiment Check
By CapitalKeeper | Market Wrap-Up | Indian Commodities | Market Moves That Matter
Tuesday’s commodity session ended with an energetic and bullish tone, as Crude Oil and Natural Gas surged with force, while Gold and Silver continued their upward consolidation amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. With geopolitical tensions and weather-driven demand dominating headlines, let’s decode the price moves, global cues, and technical setups across key commodities:
Gold (MCX) – Steady Within Bullish Channel
- Price Now: ₹99,570 / 10g
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹47
- International Spot: ~$2,370/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Gold held firm near 2-week highs amid cautious positioning ahead of the U.S. Fed Chairman’s upcoming speech and fresh jobless claims data. Continued geopolitical jitters in the Middle East supported demand for safe havens.
📈 Technical Outlook:
- Support: ₹99,250
- Resistance: ₹99,900
- RSI: 63 (moderately bullish)
- MACD: Holding positive; histogram narrowing slightly
Trade Strategy:
Wait for either a clean breakout above ₹99,900 or retracement toward ₹99,300–₹99,350 for entry. Maintain SL at ₹99,100. Positional target: ₹1,00,300.
Silver (MCX) – Charging Ahead with Momentum
- Price Now: ₹1,09,118 / kg
- Intraday Gain: ▲ ₹508
- International Spot: ~$31.68/oz
🌐 Global Cues:
Silver gained traction as base metals extended gains, particularly zinc and copper. Industrial outlooks remain positive due to better-than-expected Chinese demand and rising electric vehicle production.
📈 Technical Outlook:
- Support: ₹1,07,800
- Resistance: ₹1,09,800
- RSI: 74 (overbought zone)
- MACD: Strong bullish momentum intact
Trade Strategy:
Scalp within the current trend. Buy above ₹1,09,300 for quick targets ₹1,10,000–₹1,10,300. Trail SL below ₹1,08,500. Avoid fresh longs if gap-up opening on Wednesday.
Crude Oil (MCX) – Breakout Rally Intensifies
- Price Now: ₹6,360 / barrel
- Intraday Move: ▲ ₹164
- International Brent: ~$89.90/bbl
🌐 Global Cues:
Crude Oil surged to a fresh multi-week high amid:
- Extended supply disruptions in Libya
- API weekly inventory data hinting at major drawdown
- Anticipation of OPEC+ compliance check and further supply management
📈 Technical Outlook:
- Support: ₹6,200
- Resistance: ₹6,440
- RSI: 76 (deep overbought)
- MACD: Strong upside continuation
Trade Strategy:
Avoid aggressive chasing; look for re-entry at ₹6,270–₹6,290 with a SL of ₹6,190. Immediate target: ₹6,430. Watch U.S. EIA inventory data for fresh direction.
🔵 Natural Gas (MCX) – Weather & Demand Drive the Spike
- Price Now: ₹338.80 / MMBtu
- Intraday Gain: ▲ ₹10.60
- International Spot: ~$3.98/MMBtu
🌐 Global Cues:
Natural Gas prices spiked further on ongoing heatwaves across U.S. and Europe, which intensified cooling demand. Traders also positioned for Thursday’s EIA inventory report.
📈 Technical Outlook:
- Support: ₹328
- Resistance: ₹344
- RSI: 69 (bullish, close to overbought)
- MACD: Bullish divergence remains strong
Trade Strategy:
Look for dip buys around ₹334–₹336 with targets ₹343–₹345. SL at ₹327. Intraday volatility expected around U.S. session.
🌐 Global Cue Recap – June 18 Snapshot
| Global Driver | Commodity Impact |
|---|---|
| 🏦 Fed Chair Speech Due (Dovish Expectation) | Supportive for Gold, Silver |
| 🔥 Extreme Heat Across U.S. | Bullish for Natural Gas |
| 🛢️ Libya Oil Disruption Continues | Strong for Crude Oil |
| 🧾 U.S. API Weekly Inventory Draw | Positive sentiment for Oil |
| 📈 Industrial Demand Recovery in Asia | Boosting Silver & Base Metals |
📊 CapitalKeeper Strategy Sheet
| Commodity | Trend | Entry Range | Target Zone | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bullish | ₹99,300–₹99,400 | ₹99,900–₹1,00,300 | ₹99,100 |
| Silver | Overbought Trend | ₹1,08,800–₹1,09,200 | ₹1,10,000–₹1,10,300 | ₹1,08,300 |
| Crude Oil | Strong Breakout | ₹6,270–₹6,290 | ₹6,430–₹6,480 | ₹6,190 |
| Nat Gas | Short-Term Bullish | ₹334–₹336 | ₹343–₹345 | ₹327 |
📌 Final Thoughts
June 18 ended with broad-based commodity strength, particularly in the energy space, where Crude and Natural Gas posted notable intraday gains. Silver continued its vertical momentum, while Gold consolidated in a healthy zone. For traders, momentum-based entries with trailing stop-losses remain the most effective strategy, especially amid key global triggers ahead.
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